Well said. I wish Bernie was 20 years younger and I’d agree on that as well. Personally, at this point, I just think they need to be young-ish, and half-ways charismatic and they’d ride off the viral media energy of being a fresh face in what is an American idol popularity contest. Whitmer at this point would be my preference.
This is such a huge opportunity for Democrats to take back the narrative and steal all the energy in the room.
I’ll agree that it’s a dilemma for sure. To me I think both situations carry baggage. At this point, things are looking so atrociously bad that I think the risk is worth it and any candidate nominated at convention who may have baggage will probably running off the highs of being a fresh face before the baggage becomes a serious issue (and sad we have to talk about baggage when Trump is the opposition). Realistically it would probably be Whitmer or Newsom.
The thing to me is that this debate isn’t a one-off. It’s the culmination of what people have seen and been warning of and what’s been reflected in polls for quite a long time now.
I’ll be clear that I didn’t vote for Biden either during the 2020 primaries but I did ultimately vote for him in November. I’ll vote for him again if it comes down to it. But I’m not who you need to convince, unfortunately.
Edit: Let me also just say that it’s better now than later. What if Biden has a medical emergency in October? At the rate of his decline and age that is a very real possibility.
Cool? If you’re already convinced otherwise and you’re not convincing me, why are you here?
Did you think this through?
Rhetorical question.
That’s a concise way to deflect without any substantive rebuttal.
I think it’s funny how folks think a sore throat causes one to jump from Abortion to an anecdote on Immigration mid-sentence. The copium is astounding.
Perhaps Silver knows this, but perhaps also Nate Silver knows even more things, especially compared to the armchair Lemmy political analyst?
I’ve thought this through for quite some time and I think you’re missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn’t the 80s. Elections aren’t won on television ads.
All we know is what doesn’t work, and what doesn’t work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020.
I’ve listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers) – and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:
It is time to try something different.
Nate Silver is 100% correct.
Really. You want me to show polls for something that hasn’t happened yet? In 2020, what are you talking about? Half these people I mentioned didn’t even run in the 2020 Primaries, forgetting the obvious logical fallacy that “Who does well in the primaries predicts who does better a year from then in the General Election.” In 2020, Joe Biden was 4 years younger and far less senile than he shows now while Trump’s support was lower mostly thanks to a botched handling of covid at the time.
There is not one data-point where Biden isn’t performing worse than he did at this time in 2020.
In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage…?
I mean… What?
The data shows the American people (a) vehemently dislike both candidates, (b) perceive age to be a bigger issue with Biden, and © want fresh faces. Any of who I mentioned could’ve done better last night. Biden brings nothing to the table that the others cannot in this pressing moment.
Nobody cares what Republicans say. They think covid is a hoax, vaccines are bad, nuking hurricanes is a good idea, and that 2020 was stolen. If you think CNN has problems, look in a fucking mirror.
Are you asking that because you believe nobody is lining up wanting to be President, or that there is no candidate who fits that bill? Because I can think of half a dozen who both fit the bill and have obvious political ambitions:
All far more youthful; all far more charismatic. All who have enough national name recognition and would trounce Trump in debates and contrast of age alone.
The question to me isn’t, “who else,” it’s, “Will Biden voluntarily step down and endorse such a person at the convention?”
The polls prove this could work:nobody likes either candidate, people want new faces, and age is a problem. Just give them another choice on the Democratic ticket and it’s game-over for the convicted felon. If I could I’d be money this gives better odds than sticking it out with Biden.
If facts mattered, Trump wouldn’t be leading in the polls, let’s be honest. Nothing CNN said to fact check would matter for those who need to hear it because they’ve already been indoctrinated to believe CNN won’t be truthful anyway.
This entire debate was about optics: can Trump keep himself together, and can Biden ward off criticism of his senility? To Trump’s credit, he outperformed. Biden did not. And since Biden volunteered this debate, this is on him.
I disagree. I actually think you’d see a boost.
Acknowledging age concerns of the electorate = good.
Running someone fresh that appeals to this American Idol-esque popularity contest = good.
Running someone Republicans don’t have their talking-points fleshed out on = good.
I am right now drafting a message to send to the White House contact form advocating for just this. Will do nothing most likely, but it’s my drop in the ocean.
These are all fair points and points I’m sure to raise in the months ahead should Biden remain the nominee, but the way I see it is that polls haven’t budged; aggregate approval rating for Biden continues to decline. We can argue how much this debate hurt Biden, but we can all agree it certainly did not help. And if it didn’t help, what else can be done and said that hasn’t already been done and said over the past years? Polling isn’t just hard to budge positively, but it’s actively trending opposite to what we need, relative to Biden’s position in 2020. If the case of saying, “look it’s between the old guy, and the fascist twice-impeached convicted felon with 3 more trials to go and who tried to overturn a free and fair election” hasn’t worked yet, what makes anyone think it’s going to work in the coming months? Hel this desperation is what led the Biden campaign to accept this debate in the first place – a risk gambit that simply did not pay off. A tough sell.
So what do we do?
Well, in my view Democrats restore some trust by Biden publicly and voluntarily acknowledging the situation head-on, stepping down, and opening up the convention. Democrats nominate someone half-ways young and charismatic – Whitmer, Booker, Newsom, Buttigieg – I don’t particularly care – and I think the freshness of a face and the addressing of youth will be enough to sway swing voters.
You’ve raise fair points, thanks. I think the reality of Bernie’s position is that he wishes he was 20 years younger. In his view, neither himself nor anyone else could really say with certainty at the time last year that they would be better. After all, the economy was ticking up, abortion could be used, and Bernie got a lot of compromises and influence within the Biden administration since then. Ultimately, the Biden presidency did a lot of good work in the eyes of Bernie and a united front against Trump combined with incumbent advantages did seem to be a “safe bet” going into 2024. But we’ve seen quite an erosion of Biden’s faculties just in the last 2 years let alone 4.
Having been one of the earlier supporters of Bernie in 2015 I do remember my frustrations with the DNC oftentimes shunning Bernie and not getting the attention he deserved. I do agree there is some favoritism seniority games at play in the DNC.
I just took issue specifically with the claim that DNC did not allow anyone to run. It’s a little bit of DNC inertia, sure, but it’s also quite a lot of, “well, no good Obama-esque candidate tried” either. Now I have half a dozen names I WISH would’ve run, but alas… Now nothing has really changed ever. Candidates have always needed 1-part name-recognition, 1-part viral grassroots momentum leading to greater media coverage, and 1-part establishment backing. Some lean into one of these more so than others; some magically have all three - such as Obama.
Alas I don’t know, man. I’m at a loss. I am fundamentally disappointed at our prospects going forward and will advocate for an open convention or some alternative because this just isn’t working. If it comes down to it and Biden is indeed the nominee I’ll vote for him as well to avoid the other guy of course.
I just feel like Democrats are in a very awkward spot right now in terms of the quality of candidates they have to run; we’re between generations where one set – the Warrens, Bidens, Bernies – are too old – while the up-and-comers are just a shade too young yet – such as AOC, Katie Porter, etc. I suppose Whitmer would probably be the best bet.
Agreed. The cold thing doesn’t cause one to jump from abortion to immigration mid-sentence, either. Blaming the cold makes Biden look weaker, considering Trump had covid during the 2020 debate and still did comparatively better.
Ahh what a time of absurdity…
With all due respect I appreciate the attempt at spin-doctoring what happened and giving an outlet for Biden, but I cannot conceive of how a cold warrants that performance for anyone who suffered through watching that. Even Trump did better while actively having COVID on stage back in the 2020 debates.
Many of us have been sounding the alarm of events like this that were matter-of-factly non-existent during, say, then-VP Biden’s debates with the likes of Paul Ryan. I get why there’s incumbent inertia behind Biden, but now is very little data that portends a good end to this election for Biden, relative to his standings in 2020.
In order to viably attain the “undecided” swing-voters, we need to meet them half-way and give them an outlet that doesn’t place them into a dichotomous situation of voting for two people they clearly do not like.
Listening to more of the analysis and clips from the debate, Biden’s performance reminded me of high school and college presentations where students over-prepared by following a very rigid, memorized script but derail because they forget a single key word or trigger. This isn’t a very robust presentation strategy that can easily fail even with younger minds, let alone someone in their 80s.
Nah, for starters those votes are of a private party and not the actual general elections. Second, there are protocols in place that allow a change in nominee, and third those votes were a snapshot in time not reflective of where people are necessarily now.