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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • You’re missing fear. Which is a really important tool. Possibly the most important one.

    But yeah, happiness, fear, anger and sadness are the basic emotions. But that’s like red, blue, and yellow were the basic colors you used in elementary school painting. You get different degrees and different blends of them and that’s where the complexity comes in. Rage, anger, annoyance? Different degrees of anger. Anticipation? It’s some degree of happiness and fear. Grief? Usually some happiness, fear, and a lot of sadness.





  • The reason people go to “No relationship with reality” is because many people use the polls to say “will” instead of “favored” or conflate “will” and “favored.” When that’s the standard you are often presented, of course you are going to come to conclusion polling doesn’t have all that much to do with reality. Because it isn’t that predictive. Especially when you’re looking at things where we take this somewhat fuzzy number and turn it into a binary yes or no while the cloud of possibilities comfortably encompasses both outcomes.

    So when talking to some making definitive statements about the outcome of an election based on polls, how they are using polls only has a tenuous relationship to reality.