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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • This is really positive news especially as most the efficiency savings come from things that are only at the start of their roll-out, a lot of the infrastructure development for solar and wind is already in place with construction already in progress for huge amounts of generation. It likely also that the lower demand for electricity comes in part due to more efficient devices gaining market share; better water heaters, heat-pumps, LED lighting, etc combined with better insulation and more focus on efficiency - plus of course home solar or similar, an increasing amount of people are at least partly off-grid and use home generated power which reduces demand on the power grid.

    We also have some really useful new tech starting to reach market like tidal generation, tandem solar cells, Perovskite (which we’ve been hearing about for ages but they’re actually starting to build factories), e-fuels (again long heralded but actually starting to move into commercial production), and various new electric planes, boats, charging technologies, energy storage mediums, and etc all of which will help increase the rate of adoption and help decrease carbon emissions.



  • yeh this is a really promising technology and it's not as far as most people seem to think from being widely adoptable, there are some great projects underway

    The CCH2 [Carbon Capture and Hydrogen production from Biomass, Kew Technology] Project will develop designs for additional modules which will upgrade this gas to produce separate high-purity Hydrogen and CO2 streams. The hydrogen can be sold for industrial / transport applications and the CO2 sent for sequestration (20,000 tonnes per year per module). The strong revenues from the hydrogen enable overall very low costs per tonne of CO2 removed and the financing of sustainable biomass supply chains in a circular economy providing multiple environmental and societal benefits including new rural and industrial jobs.

    basically you grow a load of plants (generally the excess biomass from crops and maintained spaces) and burn them (in this case through a gasification process that releases hydrogen also) the carbon which is released is then captured for storage or use, this can be especially useful when burning plants that have grown on toxic ground or polluted rivers as a way of absorbing all the bad stuff which is then trapped forever and returned to an old coalmine along with all the carbon that originally came from there.

    another interesting project that just got funding is DRIVE;

    Mission Zero has developed a new DAC technology that, at scale, is projected to have 75% lower costs and energy footprints than today’s commercial solutions and is suitable for both carbon utilisation and sequestration (CCUS) use cases. With engineering support from Optimus, the project will design Mission Zero’s 365 tons a year pilot plant in Phase 1. This will integrate with O.C.O Technology’s CCUS process which stores CO2 permanently while producing building aggregates from waste.

    using the captured carbon to make useful materials like building aggregates makes it far more likely systems will get adopted, especially if they get to a price point where they're creating profitable items This is something a lot of people are working on

    [Cambridge Carbon Capture Ltd] aims to deliver a fully costed plan for a demonstrator capable of capturing CO2 from air and converting it directly into a mineral by-product with uses as construction materials using CCC’s CO2LOC carbon capture and mineralisation technology.

    Another really cool use of captured carbon has recently passed a loads of tests from the US Air Force who've worked with a company called Twelve on a project to create a viable jet fuel from CO2,

    E-Jet fuel is SAF produced using Twelve’s revolutionary carbon transformation technology, which uses only renewable energy and water to transform CO2 into critical chemicals, materials and fuels conventionally made from fossil fuels, and in partnership with Emerging Fuels Technology. As a power-to-liquid SAF with up to 90% lower lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to conventional, petroleum-based jet fuel, E-Jet fuel meets the applicable ASTM International specifications and is a drop-in ready synthetic fuel that works seamlessly with existing aircraft and airport infrastructure. It faces no real constraints on feedstock, thus offering the best viable long-term solution for addressing GHG and other emissions from the aviation sector.

    the test facility they're currently building isn't going to produce much but it's a huge first step on the way to industrialisation of the technology,

    The facility is expected to begin E-Jet fuel production in mid-2024 at a capacity of approximately five barrels per day (40,000 gallons per year), with plans to quickly increase production capacity.

    that's only about 0.00007% of the Jet Fuel used per year, but if they refine the system and make one which can be built at any airport using power from onsite renewables then it's likely we'd see a very rapid adoption.


  • The water wars prediction is especially interesting because when i was young they always pointed to a few locations where it would happen first, and top of the list was almost always Golan Heights where there were already water related tensions and conflict - however what actually happened is Israel invested in a huge desalination project which now supplies all their tap water, they also supply water to their neighbour Jordan who pays in solar power that's used to run the system.

    Saudi Arabia likewise has eased tensions within it's borders through huge desalination investment, annalists predicted that competition for water resources would tear the country apart but again what actually happened is they invested in desalination which currently supplies around half their tap water and it's helped add perceived legitimacy and gained support for the ruling family. Not people i like seeing gaining support but a far better outcome than the chaos and human suffering which was predicted.


  • yes they do that in some facilities, it's called sewer discharge and can be quiet effective in a well monitored and designed system, surface water discharge uses a similar method of dribbling brine into the water as part of a system that uses ocean currents and tides to disperse the brine back into the ocean.

    While brine return is a complicated and important step it's really not some major ecosystem destroying problem in any of the modern installs - it's just important to model and monitor the system, the same way sewage systems find a location where currents carry stuff away and allow it to disperse brine return systems do, with brine it's just stuff that belongs in the ocean anyway so it all mixes back in fairly quickly.

    A lot of people seem to like to learn the difficulties involved in a new tech and then just use negative thinking to exaggerate it into a reason the tech will never be useful even after decades of improvement and investment. There are huge projects around the world which have done really positive things for local ecosystems, they're even refilling the sea of galilee after decades of over extraction and allowing groundwater levels to restore.


  • 'previous waves of digital tech were used to deskill workers and defang smaller companies' just isn't even close to true, it's far easier to access learning resources, tools, and a final market for your product or skills than it ever has been.

    I hate when people look back and say things like 'technology took away jobs' when the reality is it's what ended the brutal privation and poverty as described in works like Jude the Obscure and Ragged Trousered Philanthropists - imagine how different Jude or Robert Tressell's lives would have been with access to the educational and community organisation resources we all take for granted. Neither of those people had the slightest chance to reach their potential and that was the reality of working class life in those eras, today we all have free access to almost endless learning resources on any subject - we have for many things the tools freely available or at cost thanks to open source; coding, digital art, writing, publishing, film-making… If Joel Haver had been born Robert Tressell or Jude the Obscure then he'd certainly have never made a movie (anachronism aside) but today he and a million other normal people from average lives are able to create art and express themselves freely.

    If anything tech has given fangs to little companies and independent creators, i've watched more Joel Haver movies than Marvel movies - one guy and his friends using hobby grade gear, home computers and a lot of passion is enough to make something that people all over the world can enjoy - tech has been fantastic for creators.

    and when creators are able to use AI tools to make that even easier and to increase the scope of their creations it'll be the big companies that suffer not the small creative groups full of passion, ideas and strong connection to the world they live in.


  • That's really cool, would be a really impressive thing to see in operation.

    Love the write up too, like the idea of it working at a different pace - maybe it's designed in a way that it's got a section that's filled up with broken and sorted scrap that feeds in whenever it's hot enough to run - that way most the work would likely be done on cloudy days, after it's run for a few days they come in and refill the giant hoppers with scrap and when that's done they go take all the bars or forms it's made - probably like one of those huge industrial ones that have the conveyor belt of moulds that get filled then roll along something just long enough that they're cool enough to dump out when it gets to the end and inverts dropping it into a huge pile as the mold goes round to get refilled.

    and yaeh totally agree about the street cars, something i really love about solar punk is that thing of using whatever works for a locality rather than the current global trend of one-size fits all. It would be great being able to travel and actually see different things again, like nearer the equator you'll see more sun based stuff and up here at 50N we'll have some mostly associated with summer activities and a lot more wind power, in arid regions they'll prefer processes that don't require or can't tolerate much water where as here we'll build under the assumption that for most the year eveything's damp. it certainly would be a more interesting world. I think localized industry is the key, especially a model when things are designed on a global scale through open source collaboration but selected and assembled locally to fit with the culture, tastes, requirements and available resources of the area.


  • yeah, i also really like the idea of algae grown biomas or electronically captured carbon being used for materials for cars, boars, etc - open source cars could have core components designed to last pretty much forever with components that have a shorter life such as body panels and interiors made from bio-plastics, e-plastics, even more traditional materials like wood and ceramics which are still fantastic materials when used in the right place and could come from coppiced trees and managed woodland.



  • oh that's really cool, would be a such a low impact way of making biochar that when you add it to the soil it'd probably actually be atmospheric carbon negative so essentially free carbon-capture - on a tiny scale but if it was how everyone did it then that's one thing pushing in the right direction instead of the wrong direction.

    and interesting about the electromagnetic pumping, i don't think it's especially hard to engineer compared to stuff that's readily available in a dozen different colours so i guess there's just no perceived market for it - i'll have to read up and see if there are any DIY projects, being able to move liquid salt around would be really useful in a lot of heat transfer applications.





  • it’s not entirely irrational though, if you’re convinced you’re in a frying pan and doom is imminent then it can feel like your only option is to jump out into the fire - and maybe it will work out better, maybe we’d land on a recently added log and spring to safety… personally i’m more about doing some parcour out the pan and along and the wooden handle or jumping onto the hand holding the spatula and burning through the flesh of the beast that got us into this dire situation.

    By that i of course mean developing a powerful open-source movement and an educated community which is able to transition to better ways of living without hurting anyone, it’s harder and far more complex but something we absolutely must strive for.




  • ok play it through a bit, so we shut down those 7 companies - i’m not sure which seven companies people are talking about but i assume it’s related to this statistic Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions so let’s just shut them all down…

    mother nature breaths a sigh of relief as billions of people die because of the collapse of global infrastructure, world governments collapse, desperate conflicts erupt around the world with warlords taking over oil reserves and production facilities… the handful of dictators with working tanks and who only care about wealth and power subjugate the helpless and starving masses promising food and prosperity when victory comes…

    Now the planet has been purged of everyone who actually cares about the climate, every available source of food and energy is stripped in a frantic battle for survival - how many people do you know that would let their kids freeze to death and how many people do you know that’d go out and chop down a tree to burn? A couple of months of winter and every tree in every city would be felled.


  • also we need communities already experimenting with living like that or it’ll be a mess, for example I’ve never eaten meat in my life and as a kid people couldn’t even begin to grasp that it was possible - i’d constantly get asked ‘what do you eat then?!’ but I haven’t heard that question in years, closest to it is likely to be ‘what do you have at Christmas’ then when i say nut roast they no long say ‘whats that?’ they say ‘oh i had a great nut roast once…’

    As a kid family holidays used to involve stopping at the only cafe that had something without meat on the menu, now even McDonalds has a wide vegan selection (in the uk). If someone had come out in the 80s and ended the meet subsidies then it would fail instantly, if it happened now there would certainly be a large backlash but the majority of people would be able to shift their consumption patterns without many problems - the policy might have a fighting chance. Even the meat-and-two guys that i know regularly have meet free dinners, it’s really common to only eat meat once or twice a week.

    Of course if i was made dictator for life i’d bring in sweeping changes that ban all the evil practices which make the meat industry possible, but that’s not going to happen - what is going to happen is it’s going to continue to get easier and cheaper to eat plant based diets, we’re going to see endless headlines like ‘largest dairy producer announces closure amid increasing popularity of oat milk’, it’ll shift from the beef industry having a hugely powerful lobby backed by billions of dollars to the beef lobby being Joe Rogan and Liverking yelling at clouds about how they need to consume flesh to feel manly. When someone suggests banning an awful and disgusting practice within the meat industry the general consensus will be ‘yeah i can go without that if it’s damaging to the environment and cruel to the animals’ so policy change will actually be possible.

    Just shrugging and saying ‘it’s not going to happen overnight so i’ll just keep eating meat until it does’ is absolutely mindless, the bath is never going to fill if the tap isn’t turned on - eating without meat helps fund and sustain the systems which makes it possible, it helps make it easier for other people to also eat without meat – even if it’s only dropping meat where it’s convenient it’s helping take power from the meat industry, by making a conscious choice to avoid meat you’re joining an increasing number of people who do the same which represents a sizeable portion of the market - the more that gets catered to the large it grows.

    Yes it’s true that no one person is going to change things but when we start to move in the right direction it makes it easier for others to move that way also. This is the same with reusable bottles, using public transport, refilling containers at the store instead of single use plastics…



  • I agree though it always annoys me when people claim we’ve done absolutely nothing - it’s an incredibly hard problem and people in and out of governments have been working on solutions and implementing them where possible. It takes time to develop workable technologies and to implement them efficiently but in a lot of places this is happening and we should highlight things that are working and showing promise so that good ideas spread, just saying ‘everything is bad and we’re going to die’ isn’t going to convince anyone to get on the right side of things but demonstrating we have lots of great ideas and emerging solutions which offer benefits even beyond climate protections just might.

    Auke Hoekstra from the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands said: “Many young people are depressed because they feel climate change cannot be stopped. We want to offer them hope by showing that our world can get all its energy needs from renewables at a price below that of fossil fuels. When we first proposed this we were ridiculed, but this paper shows our ideas are now scientific mainstream.”.

    from a study showing we can reach 100% renewable energy usable globally before 2050, and that’s just based on current rollout of existing technologies using existing methods and economies - automated construction tooling and fully-automated fabrication is going to greatly boost the rate at which adoption of new technologies can happen, and that’s without any black-swan developments which might come about especially through the use of AI r&d tools (such as those making huge leaps in chemistry and pharmacology currently) - though again as the study demonstrates we don’t even need these things to come about, and while our focus absolutely should be on protecting the ecology and climate of the planet we probably don’t even to have everyone onboard because transition to wind and solar is economically sensible too.

    ”Renewable energy technology is advancing rapidly, increasing the energy return on investment for renewable energy production; conversely, as fossil fuel reserves are depleted, they actually yield a decreasing return on investment as time goes by. Thus, if viewed in simple net energy terms, without even considering the climate change arguments for renewable energy, investing in renewable energy makes better physical and business sense than investing in fossil fuels.”

    • Dr Marco Raugei Senior Research Fellow at Oxford Brookes University

    Albania, Iceland, and Paraguay already obtain all their electricity from Renewable sources (hydro mostly), Sweden is getting close to 70% and very much on track to reach it’s target of 100% before it’s 2040 goal, Costa Rica is up at about 98% Renewables, Scotland ~97% with them on track to generate 50% of overall energy consumption (transport, heat, electrical) from renewables - big industrial countries are making huge progress too, Germany is now over 50% renewable and heavily ramping up the rate of adoption, on par with China who are also just over 50% and increasing rapidly (after heavy investment in technology and infrastructure to facilitate this change) - even the united states now has [slightly] more generation from renewables than coal AND more nuclear than coal -

    Calling this ‘jack shit’ is absurd, and it’s only one strand of all the things people and governments have been working on, we’re working hard to understand the problem, monitor it, develop and implement solutions which allow us to try and keep things working for everyone and keep everyone alive. It’s not like we can just turn off oil or something, not only would millions die but it would undoubtedly start endless wars which would result in even more widespread chaos and climate destruction while ending all the positive steps people are working on. It’s an incredibly difficult challenge but we’re equipped to deal with it and if everyone that cares tries to pitch in a bit and work towards a better world then it’s absolutely possible - defeatism and doomerism isn’t going to get us anywhere.