At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) three and independents three. This leaves the Liberals four short of the 18 needed for a majority.
The independents are the re-elected left-wing Kristie Johnston, former Labor MP David O’Byrne and anti-salmon farm campaigner Craig Garland.
Before the distribution of preferences began after the postal receipt deadline passed last Tuesday, the Liberals had been expected to win 15 seats, but lost a seat to Garland in Braddon.
This means the JLN alone is not sufficient to get the 18 votes needed for a majority. The Liberals will need JLN and at least one independent, but all three independents have some left-wing views. Labor has already conceded the election.
So if Liberals can’t form government,does that mean another election?
They can form govt. They just don’t have guaranteed confidence and supply. Means Labor and/or the three indies (likely David or Craig) can extract concessions.
It means a Liberal minority government that can’t actually pass much, probably.
former Labor MP David O’Byrne
Is he former Labor in the way Craig Kelly was former Liberal (i.e., still going to support his former party at every turn) or the way Brisbane Councillor Nicole Johnston is former LNP (i.e., so bitter at the former party she’d do anything to spite them including siding with the opposite party)?
And which way does Garland lean? I would assume being anti-salmon-farming would align broadly with Greens views, and therefore be more likely to side with Labor than the Liberals, but I’m aware environmental politics is kinda weird in Tassy.
David O’Byrne sounds like he’ll still generally be Labor-leaning.
I agree that Garland sounds Green-leaning if choosing between the three largest parties, anchored mostly in environmental policy. I don’t know much about Tasmanian politics beyond what I’ve posted but his limited non-environmental policies seem to at least loosely line up there.
I haven’t looked hard at either though, so if someone has more precise info feel free to swoop in.
Garland went off the deep end during covid. He’s still with the Greens on the environmental side but he’s a conspiracy cooker.
